Chelsea drew with Arsenal at Stamford Bridge today despite having a higher winning probability

2 years ago

Chelsea drew with Arsenal at the Bridge today after the first- and second-half lead and the last two premier league game wins. Expectations were higher for the Blues after scoring two goals in the 15^th and 48^th minutes to keep Arsenal trailing.

Arsenal changed its strategies and responded swiftly to Chelsea by scoring two goals in the 77^th and 84^th minutes. The Blues, expecting to win three consecutive matches for the first time this season, shared points with the Gunners.

The game started with both sides protecting their goalposts until the 15^th minute when a cross hit William Saliba’s arm, and a VAR check awarded a penalty for the Blues, which Cole Palmer scored for the Blues to surpass Arsenal. Chelsea ended the first half with a goal lead.

Three minutes into the second half, Mykhailo Mudryk converted an assist from Conor Gallagher into a second goal for the Blues to extend their lead. Chelsea was in excellent shape to beat Arsenal at Stamford Bridge for all three points.

However, in the 77^th minute, a mistake by Chelsea’s goalkeeper, Robert Sánchez, allowed Declan Rice to score for Arsenal for the first time in the game. Arsenal kept pushing for an equalizer and a win, and in the 84^th minute, with Bukayo Saka’s assistance, the substitute, Leandro Trossard, equalized for Arsenal.

Both teams strived for a win after the Blues gave away their higher winning percentage, allowing Arsenal to have five goals scored by substitute players this season. In Chelsea’s last twelve home premier league games, the Blues have won just one, winning against Luton Town on 25 Aug 2023.

For the first time since March 2021, Arsenal avoided losing a match they trailed after losing the last eight such matches. The Blues won one in the previous five matches with the Gunners, and today’s one ended in a draw. The last time Chelsea beat Arsenal in the premier league at the Stamford Bridge was on 18 August 2018.

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